Researchers at the University of Oxford have developed a new prognostic tool that estimates an individual's risk of severe muscle side effects from statins. The study was published on July 2, 2026, in The Lancet Digital Health.
The team analyzed anonymized health data from a total of 5.6 million people from English general practices. They developed a predictive model from 1.7 million datasets and validated it against an additional 3.9 million individuals. The calculator considers 22 factors – including age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index, smoking, pre-existing conditions, previous muscle problems, vitamin D deficiency, and medication use – and estimates the risk of severe muscle disease over one, five, and ten years.
The key finding: More than 98 percent of individuals eligible for statin therapy had a low risk of developing severe muscle disease requiring hospitalization or leading to death within ten years. At the same time, over 60 percent of eligible patients were not taking statins – even though some had a high risk of heart attack or stroke.
The researchers, led by Dr. Ting Cai, emphasize that the tool only identifies severe muscle disorders, not the mild muscle discomfort that some patients experience. Many of these mild symptoms are also not causally linked to statins. The calculator, used in conjunction with cardiovascular risk assessments, aims to support doctors and patients in making more individualized benefit-risk considerations.
Source: University of Oxford, The Lancet Digital Health, July 2, 2026 (Cai T. et al.)
